Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.363261 35.132414 39.508513 45.052727 52.024348 60.699362 72.658421
2025-04-13 27.249370 32.298138 38.787932 48.102189 61.839125 82.809511 121.174590
2025-04-20 23.464851 28.804940 36.134386 47.609451 66.749246 101.767811 189.150225
2025-04-27 21.078540 26.593116 34.570496 48.018462 73.151383 128.797677 340.877958
2025-05-04 19.359676 24.967545 33.438067 48.659681 80.294717 166.214967 802.797451
2025-05-11 17.920239 23.506720 32.236496 48.767880 86.486882 212.529899 3809.532483
2025-05-18 16.626883 22.085221 30.834583 48.089315 90.598357 263.444389 NaN
2025-05-25 15.701623 21.118165 30.026219 48.350371 97.464532 354.477138 NaN
2025-06-01 14.828454 20.136228 29.041448 47.987686 102.513713 470.639972 NaN
2025-06-08 14.052507 19.235844 28.079537 47.448162 106.881945 636.460590 NaN
2025-06-15 13.372152 18.432886 27.195937 46.893720 111.082640 900.262648 NaN
2025-06-22 12.811623 17.783766 26.522249 46.695113 116.798238 1472.906977 NaN
2025-06-29 12.179543 16.980633 25.498137 45.500280 118.056533 2236.578761 NaN
2025-07-06 12.013903 16.961376 25.980338 48.261649 140.788752 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 11.531947 16.356703 25.241601 47.621699 145.847801 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 11.181536 15.959790 24.881580 47.967179 157.781602 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.882164 15.632778 24.630246 48.578890 173.202371 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.564990 15.253201 24.231943 48.674379 185.884209 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.213342 14.791067 23.618966 47.992681 191.800886 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.956107 14.487248 23.319240 48.250535 207.887409 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.673345 14.121315 22.854673 47.888091 218.002056 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.397667 13.755195 22.362425 47.349993 226.100545 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.138643 13.408342 21.888436 46.797268 233.949213 NaN NaN